Before we ship Stage 2, 3, 4 — diagnose where the unmanaged 540k actually drop off, switch away, and never come back.
Stage 1 is the data foundation that tells the other stages where to point and how to measure success.
01 / 06
Why now
The wedge.
The Mar 2026 Digital Strategy refresh named three priorities (Search · Switching · Reorder) but they were named on instinct + general industry data, not on OMX-specific funnel evidence
Lens is live; the dbt models exist; the question is no longer "do we have data?" — it's "do we know what it's telling us about the unmanaged 540k journey?"
Diagnose work has been ad-hoc — a deep dive per question. Codifying it (links to Deck 21 Strategic Deep Dives) means every downstream stage builds on the same evidence base.
02 / 06
What this covers
What's in scope.
01
Funnel map
top of funnel through to repeat order, with drop-off % at every step (sourced from web, Pronto, SF, Snowflake)
02
The unmanaged 540k segment
what their journey actually looks like vs the managed K3+ cohort
03
Switching signals
who switched in (and what worked) + who switched out (and why)
04
Cost-to-serve overlay
where money is spent that doesn't convert
05
The hypotheses for Stage 2 + 3 + 4
what diagnose tells us to bet on, vs what we'd guess
06
The measurement spine
baseline numbers so we can prove Stage 2/3/4 worked
03 / 06
The problem
What's broken.
01
We chose three priorities on instinct
Mar 2026 refresh named Search/Switching/Reorder before we had the funnel evidence
02
No baseline conversion
we can't prove Stage 2 worked because we don't know what today's CR is by cohort + step + device
03
Unmanaged journey is a black box
most of the 540k visit, then leave; we don't know which moment we lost them
04
Switching is anecdotal
we know customers come and go; we don't know the volume, the velocity, or the reason at scale
05
Cost-to-serve is averaged
phone quotes, manual orders, off-range hunts — all aggregated; impossible to target
06
Measurement reactive, not designed
every initiative reports its own KPIs in its own format
04 / 06
The benefits
The value story.
Lever
Mechanism
Sizing
Hypothesis sharpening
Replace instinct priorities with funnel-evidence priorities
Avoid building the wrong thing — Stage 2/3/4 build cost
Baseline measurement
Every later stage proves its lift against a known baseline
Every Stage 2-4 deck becomes boardable
Cost-to-serve targeting
Know which segment + journey-step is unprofitable
Direct margin protect
Switching insight
Volume + velocity + reasons of churn
Stage 3 funnel design grounded
Cohort visibility
Segment by sector, size, tenure, channel
Better ICP for every other initiative
05 / 06
The ask + roadmap
What we need.
Now
Cover
analyst at desk with funnel + cohort + churn dashboards on monitor; calm focus
top to bottom with drop-off % at each step; managed vs unmanaged side-by-side
P4
The cohort split
managed K3+ vs unmanaged K0-K2 journey shape
P5
Switching signal panel
in / out volumes, velocity, top reasons (where evidence supports)
Audience
Primary: Chief Digital Officer + CFO + Strategy. Funnel evidence shapes every Stage 2+ commitment. Secondary: Stage 2/3/4 owners — they consume the baseline and the hypotheses. Tertiary: ExCo — quarterly read of the unmanaged 540k journey.
References
Memory: Mar 2026 OMX Digital Strategy refresh — three priorities (Search/Switching/Reorder); this deck is the evidence base under them (reference_omx_digital_strategy_three_priorities)
Memory: OMX dbt models at lens/Current/libraries/dbt/models/presented/ — F_AGG_SALES_PERFORMANCE_*, F_CUST_TARGET_* are the input data
Memory: K0-K2 unmanaged universe = 10-14% large-national cost centres; the OTHER 86-90% is the real unmanaged target (reference_omx_k0k2_universe_cost_centre_concealment)
Memory: MBIE 2022 Small Business Factsheet — 540k SMBs baseline (~594k current; Stats NZ Feb-2025 = 617,330 enterprises)
Memory: N3 buying group — 5,498 SF accts, $18.8M closed-12 (reference_omx_n3_definition)